Why We’re So Sure — And So Often Wrong

Have you ever found yourself jumping to conclusions about another person’s motivations, without really being sure you’re right? We can go from zero to 60 pretty fast and base our assumptions about other people’s actions on a bit of data from an interaction or an email. Before we know it, we’ve already decided what it all means and our next steps are rooted in the story we’ve developed on our own.

Even though we are wired to make these snap judgments to protect ourselves, they can also lead us to actions that may be based on inaccurate assumptions or different interpretations of the “facts.” Those actions can damage relationships, chill communication, or even just cause more confusion. There’s a name for this phenomenon – we call it “jumping up the ladder of inference.” The good news is that once you realize you’re jumping up that ladder, you can regroup, test your assumptions, and make choices that reflect a better understanding of the situation and the other person’s intentions.

Here’s a quick video that further demonstrates what happens when we jump up the ladder of inference, and how we can instead step back down the rungs before we take actions we might later regret.

The DIII-D Ombuds Resource

Please remember that the MWI Ombuds Team is here to support you in thinking through challenging interactions and situations and can help you consider a range of options for how you might want to proceed. You can read more about our confidential, informal services here.

Contact one of the ombuds below for more information.

Alnoor Maherali (alnoor-ombuds@mwi.org and 848-456-8080) is a highly-skilled ombuds, mediator, trainer, and consultant with MWI. He offers 20 years of experience working in conflict zones, in the not-for-profit sector, and as a practitioner in the fields of diplomacy, mediation, human rights, and crisis management. His personal and professional travels have taken him to over 50 different countries, making him especially adept at navigating cultural, ethnic, and racial conflicts and differences. Alnoor resides in New York City and mediates for MWI, Venn Mediation, the Office of the United Nations Ombudsman and Mediation Services (UNOMS), and the New York Peace Institute (NYPI). He coaches and mentors the next generation of mediators at Harvard, Yale, and The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. Alnoor also provides training and coaching on negotiation, collaboration, and difficult conversations through MWI and Vantage Partners. His professional accomplishments include the negotiation of resolutions at the United Nations in Geneva and New York, the sharing of best practices in disaster response and civil-military coordination with the Government of Brazil, and important roles in the resolution of two high-profile kidnapping cases in Afghanistan. Additionally, he has demonstrated a strong commitment to the community, volunteering with Hospice Care Ottawa for 12 years and serving on their Board of Directors for four. Alnoor has a Bachelor of Science (Honors) in Mathematics from Queen’s University in Canada and a Master’s in Public Administration from the Harvard Kennedy School in the US. He was trained by the International Ombuds Association in the Foundations of Organizational Ombuds Practice course. Schedule a time to talk with Alnoor by sending an email to alnoor-ombuds@mwi.org or by calling 848-456-8080.

Lexi Wolfe (lexi-ombuds@mwi.org and 828-419-0082) is an experienced conflict resolution and organizational ombuds practitioner with over a decade of experience helping organizations and individuals address conflicts, improve communication, and strengthen collaboration. Most recently, she served as the Acting Director of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of the Ombudsman after serving as an Associate Ombuds from 2019 to 2025. In this role, she provided ombuds services across the DOE complex, helping senior leaders, management teams, and individuals navigate and address the root causes of conflict and increase conflict management skills through extensive training and coaching. Previously, she served as an Ombudsman Specialist at the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), helping mitigate the of workplace conflict through early, informal resolution. Lexi played a key role in launching and managing the U.S. Small Business Administration’s (SBA) Conflict Resolution Center, which provides confidential, informal, and neutral conflict resolution services, including mediation, facilitation, and coaching. She also interned with the U.S. Department of Justice Community Relations Service, helping de-escalate multi-party community conflicts. Before transitioning to the conflict resolution field, Lexi worked as a management consultant helping private sector and nonprofit clients develop strategic solutions for a range of business challenges. Lexi holds a Master of Science in Negotiation & Conflict Resolution from Columbia University and a Bachelor of Arts in Journalism and Mass Communications from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. She is certified as an Organizational Ombuds Practitioner (CO-OP) by the International Ombuds Association (IOA) and as an Associate Certified Coach (ACC) by the International Coaching Federation (ICF), and she has extensive experience designing and delivering conflict resolution and communication training. Schedule a time to talk with Lexi by sending an email to lexi-ombuds@mwi.org or by calling 828-419-0082.